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Energy Stat of the Week by J. Marshall Adkins

Energy Stat: As Libya's Factions Fight It Out, This Is Yet Another Oil Supply Outage to Keep Us Busy

July 16, 2018

With OPEC and global excess oil productive capacity poised to fall to near zero over the next six months, the risk of any global oil supply disruption becomes a BIG, BIG DEAL going forward. Even within OPEC, there are many uncertainties when it comes to sustainable production including: 1) How much spare capacity does Saudi Arabia have?; 2) How will the return of U.S. sanctions impact Iranian exports?; 3) What happens to other OPEC countries whose production has been steadily declining for years (including Algeria, Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Qatar, and Venezuela)?; 4) Speaking of Venezuela, how long before PdVSA begins to barter crude for emergency supplies of toilet paper?; and 5) What will happen to what is (arguably) the most unpredictable OPEC producer – Libya?