Energy Stat of the Week by Justin Jenkins

Energy Stat: Midstream Annual Outlook - Valuation Is Attractive but When Will Sentiment Turn the Corner?

January 24, 2019

As we highlight in our deep-dive 2019 Midstream Outlook, the industry had another volatile and painful year in 2018, with Alerian's AMZ index losing 19% (or -12% including yield) - see the graphs below. This was well below our expectation of 8-10% price appreciation and ~8% yield. Equity declines were felt even in the face of much improved midstream operations, cash flows, and balance sheets. Meanwhile, substantial progress was made in cleaning up corporate structures in 2018. However, myriad other issues battered sentiment even lower and limited fund inflows all year long: 1) possible producer discipline (an early 2018 midstream "fear"); 2) perpetually volatile commodity prices; 3) never-ending political/regulatory overhangs; 4) wild price differentials (and changing outlooks) across several commodities and regions; 5) midstream capital allocation concerns (which built all year); 6) year-end tax loss selling; and 7) a crescendo of macro/recessionary/interest rate fears to end 2018.